Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

GitHub · suggest a change · how to contribute

Change any input and the curve redraws. The starting values are the 2026-11-05 forecast. Each input has a central value plus a low case and a high case; the shaded band runs from the all-low case to the all-high case. Why each input has the value it does: Rationale.

Inputs

Low and high cases mean a lower or higher chance of Yes, so for the steepest point the low case is the later year. P(Yes before date) = 1 − (1 − Science)(1 − Disclosure)(1 − Remark). Science = Exists and findable × Announced × S-curve share by that date. Disclosure and Remark are spread evenly from 2026-11-05 to the end of the term (2029-01-20).

Forecast at each market date

Change the model

Think an input is wrong, or a path is missing? Suggest a change on GitHub, or fork the repository and send your version (how to contribute).

Roadmap

• Live Kalshi prices next to the forecast.

Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to trade.