Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

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Background

I chose this question as the first event for this project because of a fun fact I stumbled on the night before: DNA can survive re-entry into Earth's atmosphere. Imagine the possibilities for extraterrestrial life if its source code can survive interstellar travel.

This is a clunky first-draft prototype of the evaluation, modeling and decision process for event forecasting. Its accuracy will be judged against prediction markets, and iterative improvements are to come.

The question

Will U.S. officials announce, before a set date, that extraterrestrial life exists? Four dates are open, the latest Jan 20, 2029. Rules →

Forecast

Before	Forecast
Dec 1, 2026	0.1%
Jan 1, 2027	0.2%
Jan 1, 2028	1.8%
Jan 20, 2029	3.7%

Last updated 2026-11-05 · history

Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to trade.